BEIJING, 15 May 2015 – The World Health Organization (WHO) today released its preliminary assessment of the impact of the increase to tobacco taxation announced by China’s Ministry of Finance on 8 May.
“Increasing tobacco taxes and prices is the single most effective way of reducing tobacco consumption in the short term. The WHO therefore welcomes the announcement by the Ministry of Finance of a tobacco tax increase in China,” said Dr Bernhard Schwartländer, WHO Representative in China.
“We are especially pleased to see that the new tax policy establishes the important precedent that tobacco tax increases should be passed on to the retail price of cigarettes, in order to reduce tobacco consumption for public health purposes,” Dr Schwartländer said.
Summary of changes
The tax increase announced by the Ministry of Finance last week and which came into effect on May 10 includes two components:
· an increase in the excise tax applied at the wholesale level, from 5% to 11%;
· a new, specific excise tax of 0.005RMB per stick, or 0.1RMB per pack of 20 cigarettes.
WHO’s preliminary assessment of the new policy
WHO has conducted preliminary modelling on the tax increase in conjunction with Professor Rose Zheng, at the WHO Collaborating Centre on Tobacco Control and Economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.
According to our preliminary analysis, the tax increase will lead cigarette retail prices to increase on average by between 7-10%, with the cheapest brands likely to increase the most.
For instance, the price of a pack of cigarettes which currently retails for 5 RMB could increase to around 5.5 RMB.
As a result of the changes, the share of excise tax as a proportion of the market average retail price of tobacco products is expected to increase from 30% to 34%.
The overall share of tax as a proportion of the market retail price of tobacco – including excise, Value-Added Tax (VAT) and other taxes – is likely to increase from 50% to approximately 54%.
WHO expects that increases in the retail price of 7-10% will have a modest but measurable impact on reducing total cigarette consumption, most notably with respect to the cheapest brands in the market which encourage use and uptake by vulnerable populations – such as young people and people on very low incomes.
However, it will be some time before the real impact of the tax increase can be determined – in particular, the impact on consumption. There are a range of variables which may affect this, for instance – the wide variation in cigarette prices in China.
Cigarette prices are still low by international standards and household incomes in China are growing strongly. This means that cigarettes will become more affordable over time unless regular tax increases are introduced by the Government.
WHO will continue to monitor the impact of the tax changes, in particular on retail prices.
“Right now, around 12% of all adult deaths in China are caused by smoking. This takes a heavy toll on China’s health system, and on the broader society and economy. High health costs fall most heavily on the poor, who can least afford to pay. This can lead to a vicious cycle of impoverishment,” Dr Schwartländer said.
“By raising tobacco taxes, the Chinese Government can reduce these costs, raise additional reveue, and improve public health – particularly amongst the poor: a classic ‘win-win’ policy,” Dr Schwartländer said.
“Even a marginal decrease in the smoking rate in China would mean millions fewer smokers, who will avoid the diseases and early death that comes with smoking. There is a direct link between the price of tobacco products and the level of consumption: in other words, the higher the price, the more lives that will be saved,” Dr Schwartländer concluded.
For more information, please go to the WHO China website: http://www.wpro.who.int/china/en/ or follow WHO on Weibo: http://www.weibo.com/whoinchina .
About the World Health Organization
WHO is the directing and coordinating authority for health within the United Nations system. It is responsible for providing leadership on global health matters, shaping the health research agenda, setting norms and standards, articulating evidence-based policy options, providing technical support to countries and monitoring and assessing health trends.
For more information please contact
Ms WU Linlin
WHO China Office
E-mail: wul@who.int
Office Tel: +86 10 6532 7191
世卫组织新闻通稿
世界卫生组织发布对中国提高烟草税政策的初步评估
北京，2015年5月15日——世界卫生组织（世卫组织）今天发布了对中国财政部5月8日宣布的提税政策相关影响的初步评估结果。
“提高烟草税和价格是短期内降低烟草消费的最有效办法。因此，世界卫生组织非常欢迎财政部提高中国烟草税的决定，”世界卫生组织驻华代表施贺德博士表示。
“我们非常乐意看到新的税收政策开创了一个重要先河，即，提高的税率应该体现在卷烟零售价中。惟有这样才能降低烟草消费，促进公共卫生目标的实现。”
政策调整简介
上周财政部宣布提高烟草税并从5月10日开始执行。提税主要包括两项内容：
· 将卷烟批发环节从价税税率由5%提高至11%；
· 按0.005元/支加征从量税，相当于1包20支的卷烟加征0.1元从量税。
世卫组织对新政策的初步评估
世卫组织与对外经济贸易大学世界卫生组织烟草控制经济学合作中心的郑榕教授合作，对提税政策进行了初步模型分析。
初步分析显示，提税将使卷烟零售价平均上涨7-10%之间，低端品牌涨幅有可能最大。
举例说明：目前零售价为5元一包的卷烟，提税后将涨价到5.5元一包。
受其影响，消费税在烟草平均零售价中的占比将从30%上涨至34%。
各种税收（包括消费税、从价税和其他税）之和在烟草零售价中的占比有可能从50%上涨到54%左右。
世卫组织认为，卷烟零售价上涨7-10%对于降低总体卷烟消费将会产生适度但仍可测量到的影响，其中，以对吸引年轻人或低收入者等薄弱人群吸烟的低价品牌的影响较为明显。
然而，须假以时日，提税的实际效果（尤其是对烟草消费的影响）才能显示出来。此外，还有其他一些影响因素，例如，中国的卷烟价格差别巨大。
从国际标准来看，中国的卷烟价格仍较低，而中国的家庭收入正在不断增加。也就是说，如果政府不定期提税，人们对卷烟的负担能力将日益提高。
世卫组织将继续监测提税的效果，特别是对零售价格的影响。
“目前，中国约12%的成人死亡是由吸烟引起的，给中国卫生系统以及整个社会和经济带来了沉重负担。支付能力最低的贫困人群是高医疗费用的主要承受者，可能因此而落入因病致贫的恶性循环，”施博士表示。
“通过提高烟草税，中国政府可以减少上述损失，增加收入，改善人民健康，尤其是贫困人群的健康。这是典型的双赢政策，”施博士说。
施博士最后表示：“中国的吸烟率即使只是略有下降，都意味着减少了数百万的吸烟者，他们将因此避免了吸烟导致的疾病和死亡。烟草制品价格直接关系到烟草消费水平；换言之，价格越高，将有越多人的生命得到挽救。”
获取更多信息，请访问世卫组织驻华代表处网站：http://www.wpro.who.int/china/zh/ 或关注世界卫生组织微博：http://www.weibo.com/whoinchina 。
关于世界卫生组织
世卫组织是联合国系统内的卫生指导与协调机构，负责在全球卫生健康相关工作中发挥领导作用，制定卫生健康研究议程，设立规范及标准，阐述循证的政策备选方案，向各国提供技术支持，以及监控和评估卫生健康趋势。
更多信息请垂询
吴琳琳女士
世卫组织驻华代表处
电子邮箱：wul@who.int
办公电话：+86 10 6532 7191