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Smokers Undeterred as Bills Keep Rising

Since the beginning of the past fiscal year (ended in March) the taxes collected on tobacco products are paid to the Health Ministry (50%), Education Ministry (25%) and Ministry of Sports and Youth Affairs (25%) for anti-smoking campaigns

https://financialtribune.com/articles/people/65335/smokers-undeterred-as-bills-keep-rising

Iranians spend $1-1.5 million (40 to 50 billion rials) on tobacco products each day and the cost of treating tobacco-related disease is almost three times more than the amount spent on tobacco consumption.

During the past five years, the rate of tobacco consumption has only slightly decreased, studies conducted by the Health Ministry indicate. The rate is still high among adolescents and young people (the peak age for first trying of smoking has decreased from 13 to 10). The figure has also increased dramatically compared to the past decade, the Persian language weekly ‘Salamat’ reported.

“In 2006, Iranians smoked 50 billion cigarettes (worth $33.3 million). The figure reached 60-70 billion cigarettes in 2016,” said Dr Mohammadreza Madani, head of the Iranian Anti-Tobacco Association (IATA).

Another concern is the high prevalence of hookah (water pipe) for smoking flavored tobacco among young people. One hour of smoking hookah exposes a smoker 100-fold to the amount of smoke inhaled from a single cigarette. Even those people around a hookah smoker inhale smoke equal to 10 cigarettes.

Every year on May 31, the WHO marks World No Tobacco Day (WNTD), highlighting the health and additional risks associated with tobacco use, and advocating effective policies to reduce tobacco consumption.

The theme for World No Tobacco Day 2017 is ‘Tobacco – a threat to development.’

But irrespective of the programs to create awareness on the harmful effects of smoking, statistics show that 14-15% of Iranians from the 80 million population are regular cigarette smokers (more than 3% are women, and 20% men).

“Though most of the cigarette smokers are men, hookah smoking doesn’t vary by gender; 21.3% of women and 21.7% of men are hookah smokers,” Madani said.

Dodging Taxes

Iran is one of the nations that has signed the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC), by which a country is committed to reduce the rate of tobacco consumption every year (by implementation of both price and tax measures as well as non-price measures to reduce demand for tobacco).

Pointing to Article 8 of the National Comprehensive Law on Tobacco Control, Madani said, “According to the law passed in 2006, every year taxes on cigarettes should be increased by 10%.”

“However, there have been always obstacles in its implementation. For example, in 2010 the figure decreased to 5% due to ‘manipulative tactics’ by the powerful tobacco lobby. Tobacco producers said that high taxes on cigarettes would lead to an increase in cigarette smuggling, and thus managed to reduce the tax.”

However, in January this year, lawmakers passed cigarette and tobacco tax slabs to be implemented under the sixth five-year economic development plan (2017-22).

Based on the new law, the tax slab on locally-produced tobacco and cigarettes is 10%; for local brands jointly produced by domestic and foreign manufacturers, it is 20%; for domestically produced cigarettes with foreign brand names the slab is 25%; and for imported cigarettes and tobacco, it is 40%.

Lawmakers also mandated the Ministry of Industries, Mining and Trade to announce the retail prices of cigarettes and all tobacco products to the relevant authorities for taxation purposes and for printing the tax rates on cigarette packs.

“Since the beginning of the past fiscal year (ended in March) the taxes collected on tobacco products are paid to the Health Ministry (50%), Education Ministry (25%) and Ministry of Sports and Youth Affairs (25%). The Education Ministry is required to spend the money on increasing students’ awareness of harms associated with tobacco smoking,” Madani said.

Earlier, the tax money was given to the ministries of health and sports and youth affairs.

Facts About Tobacco

There are more than 7 million deaths from tobacco use every year, a figure that is predicted to cross 8 million by 2030 without effective and intensified action. Tobacco consumption is a threat to any person, regardless of gender, age, race, cultural or educational background. It brings suffering, disease, and death, impoverishing families and national economies.

Tobacco use costs national economies enormously through increased healthcare costs and decreased productivity. Some 80% of premature deaths from tobacco occur in low- or middle-income countries, which face increased challenges to achieving their development goals, the WHO website reports.

Tobacco growing requires large amounts of pesticides and fertilizers, which can be toxic and pollute water supplies. Each year, tobacco growing uses 4.3 million hectares of land, resulting in global deforestation between 2% and 4%. Tobacco manufacturing also produces over 2 million tons of solid waste.

By increasing cigarette taxes worldwide by $1, an extra $190 billion could be raised for development. High tobacco taxes contribute to revenue generation for governments, reduce demand for tobacco, and offer an important revenue stream to finance development activities.

What’s keeping Indonesia, China addicted to smoking?

A World Trade Organisation ruling backing Australia’s hard line on cigarette packaging highlights a gulf between Asia and much of the rest of the world

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/society/article/2094162/whats-keeping-indonesia-china-addicted-smoking

It was during a trip to Egypt in 1995 when Edison Siahaan first felt that something wasn’t quite right with his throat. Four decades had gone by since he started smoking at the age of 15. His voice had been raspy for years. Maybe this was just the dry air tickling the back of his throat.

But it wasn’t dry air and it wasn’t a tickle. It was cancer. Doctors excised a portion of his trachea leaving a hole the size of a nickel at the base of the throat. He lost his bank job because for a year following the surgery he couldn’t speak. Even now, what passes for speech makes him sound like the emperor from Star Wars only with more hissing. Now 79, Siahaan, a kindly old gent with a full head of hair, is tough to look at. “I see kids smoking all the time here,” he says, gesturing back and forth along the length of the street from his front room. “It makes me sick to think they are going to ruin their life. I point at this hole in my throat and say to them: do you want to look like this?”

Asian men already account for the lion’s share of the world’s tobacco related illnesses, yet a World Trade Organisation ruling this week that upheld tough anti-smoking rules introduced in Australia in 2012, showed that if anything, the gap in attitudes between Asia and the rest of the world may be widening.

“Tobacco in China is absolutely devastating,” says Dr Angela Pratt who helps handle external relations at the World Health Organisation’s office for the Western Pacific in Manila.

In China, roughly 300 million people smoke, according to the WHO. Most of these are men. More than half of Chinese adults are smokers and two-thirds of young Chinese men start smoking. While smoking rates are steady, the absolute number of smokers is rising in line with population growth. Chinese smokers account for 44 per cent of all the cigarettes puffed in the world. At current rates 200 million Chinese will die this century from tobacco-related illnesses, Pratt says. “That’s a huge burden. The people afflicted are often the sole income earners,” she says.

This week, the WTO ruled that Australia’s plain packaging rules, which ban branding and distinctive colouring from packs of cigarettes, were a legitimate public health measure. The ruling knocked back a complaint from Indonesia, Cuba, Honduras and the Dominican Republic, who said the rule amounted to an illegal trade barrier. As the former chief of staff to the Australian health minister who introduced the plain packaging measures, Nicola Roxon, Pratt helped develop the policy, bulletproofing it from court challenges from tobacco companies and governments.

“We were proud to be taking on plain packaging,” Pratt recalls. “But we wanted to be sure to be able to defend it.”

Together with graphic warnings and taxes that will push cigarettes up to A$40 (HK$230) per pack by 2020, the measure is credited with accelerating the fall in Australia’s smoking rate. The most recent figures show about 13 per cent of Australian adults smoke and less than five per cent of school children. A dozen countries, from Canada to Chile and Britain to Uruguay are either introducing similar rules or seriously considering them.

At the other extreme is Indonesia. The most recent figures, which date back to 2013, show 240,000 Indonesians die every year from tobacco related illnesses. Two-thirds of Indonesian men and boys, over the age of 15, smoke, according to the Ministry of Health.

Most troubling are the numbers of new young smokers throughout the archipelago, says Dr Widyastuti Soerojo, chair of the tobacco control unit at the Indonesian Public Health Association. She says some 16 million Indonesian youngsters between the ages of 10 and 19 experiment with smoking every year – a rate of about 44,000 every day.

Indonesia is among the few countries that are not signatories to the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which among other things aims to curb the appeal of smoking for children.

Indonesia television and billboards feature handsome intrepid men jumping out of planes or into business meetings. Roadside kiosks individually sell clove cigarettes, known as kretek, for as little as 10 US cents each.

Governments in Jakarta and local governments in vote-rich provinces, such as Central Java and East Java, fend off calls for more curbs on smoking saying they provide badly needed jobs to rural families.

But mechanisation and growing taste for machine-made cancer sticks rather than hand-rolled types, belie that argument. Tobacco accounts for about half of one per cent of all jobs in Indonesia, according to the Southeast Asia Tobacco Control Alliance. Campaigners are quick to point out the country’s richest families have tobacco to thank.

The Hartonos, Indonesia’s richest family and worth US$17 billion, own kretek maker Djarum.

Indonesian cigarette sales totaled US$16 billion in 2015. Sampoerna, which is more than 90 per cent owned by Philip Morris, is Indonesia’s most valuable company.

“The government treats tobacco like it’s a normal industry but really this is neocolonialism by tobacco companies,” Dr Soerojo says.

In China, the culprit for health advocates is the China National Tobacco Corporation, which controls more than 98 per cent of the local market. Implementation of the UN tobacco convention falls to the Ministry of Industry, which is also home to the body that owns China Tobacco. “A parallel would be, back when I was with the health ministry, meetings were chaired by a representative of Philip Morris,” Pratt said. “There’s plenty of room for conflict of interest.”

Still, there’s progress. Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a combined population of more than 60 million, have banned smoking in public areas. China hiked taxes on cigarettes in 2015. The move resulted in a 20 per cent jump in the retail prices of the cheapest brands. Owing to its massive market, that move alone resulted in a more than 2 per cent drop in world tobacco consumption in 2016.

In Indonesia, smoking is banned in most public spaces but enforcement peters out the further one travels from the centre of Jakarta. Indonesia introduced graphic warnings on packaging in 2012 and hiked excise taxes on cigarettes by 15 per cent in 2016. Even so, additional hikes for this year were scotched. Glimmers of light are on the horizon, says WHO’s Pratt, but plain packaging is still “a long way off”.

For Siahaan, his government’s halting go-slow approach is proof that cigarettes are insidious, and for him, more ruinous than narcotics. “At least with drugs you can get help,” he gasps. “For cigarettes, you see them everywhere.”

Tobacco Control Program

Context

Tobacco use, and its negative health, social and economic impacts, is a significant global health challenge.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/brief/tobacco

According to the 2015 World Health Organization (WHO) Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, in 2013, 21% of adults globally were current smokers – 950 million men and 177 million women. Despite increasing global population between 2007 and 2013, smoking prevalence has actually declined worldwide from 23% in 2007, preventing an increase in the number of smokers in the world. The total remains at 1.1 billion smokers globally in 2013.

Tobacco use is a leading global disease risk factor and underlying cause of ill health, preventable death, and disability. It is estimated to kill more than 5 million people each year across the globe. If current trends persist, tobacco will kill more than 8 million people worldwide each year by 2030, with 80% of these premature deaths taking place in the developing world.

In 2015, the “Addis Ababa Action Agenda” adopted at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia — and later endorsed by the United Nations as part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) — recognized that public policies and mobilization, and effective use of domestic resources, underscored by the principle of national ownership, are central to the common pursuit of sustainable development, including achieving the SDGs.

Clause 32 of the Addis Ababa Action Agenda states that price and tax measures on tobacco are viewed as an effective and important means to reduce tobacco consumption and health care costs, and represent a revenue stream for financing for development in many countries.

The Action Agenda also stresses that the tobacco tax agenda is fully consistent with obligations acquired by 180 countries that are parties to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) (an additional seven countries have signed the FCTC but have not ratified it, and only nine countries are neither signatories or parties to the FCTC).

World Bank Group Tobacco Control Program

The World Bank Group’s Global Tobacco Control Program assists countries in fostering and implementing tobacco tax reforms to achieve public health goals by reducing tobacco affordability and consumption, and for mobilizing domestic resources to expand the fiscal space to fund priority programs and investments that benefit the entire population, and controlling illicit trade on tobacco by strengthening customs systems. Work has been carried out over 2013-2016 in Philippines, Bostwana, Ghana, Namibia, Vietnam, Georgia, Indonesia, and Peru; more recently, for the support of tobacco tax reforms adopted in 2017 in Armenia, Colombia, Moldova, and Ukraine, and assessments done over 2016-2017 in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Belarus, Turkey, Chile, and on the European Union tax harmonization process. Work is currently underway or being initiated in the Indonesia, Sierra Leone, China, and Montenegro. In addition, the program supports knowledge exchange, including peer-to-peer advice and support, among selected countries on the economics of tobacco control (for example, through the Joint Learning Network, which includes more than 30 countries).

The preparation of a Tobacco Taxation Module as part of WBG/IMF Tax Policy Assessment Framework (TPAF) is underway as part of a new WBG/IMF initiative launched ahead of the Financing for Development Conference in Addis Ababa, held in July 2015, to help member countries strengthen their tax systems. One of the pillars of the initiative includes the development of “improved diagnostic tools to help member countries evaluate and strengthen their tax policies.” Building on their collective expertise, the Bretton Woods Institutions (BWIs) aim to play a fuller role in enabling all of their member countries to assess tax policy performance in order to identify priority tax policy reforms, and design the requisite support for their implementation. The TPAF is a diagnostic framework to provide systematic and structured assessment of a country’s tax policy system, and to develop options for improving such system given a set of policy objectives.

More specifically, the program assists government agencies in developing capacity to assess the health and social costs of tobacco use, and design, enact, administer and monitor tobacco taxation policies. Enhanced capacity will enable countries to increase prices and reduce tobacco use, taking into account the macro-economic and fiscal situation of each country, tax laws, and existing tax administration structure and processes. This process includes assessments and discussions related to fiscal revenues and allocation; smoking patterns and taxes at country level; and socio-economic and health impacts of increasing tobacco tax rates, under different tax policy scenarios, and including impacts on employment, smuggling and other likely impacts of tobacco tax reforms.

The Bank team engaged in this program is multi-sectoral, and includes experts in health, governance, and macro-economics and financial management. Initial discussions are being held to mobilize knowledge and expertise from the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Affairs team. The Bank team is also working closely with other international partners, such as the World Health Organization and the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

The Bank’s Tobacco Control Program is implemented through a multi-donor trust fund financed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Bloomberg Philanthropies. These donors take part in governance of the trust fund and participate in the selection of priority countries included for support under the program.

Joint Learning Network Module: The Joint Learning Network (JLN), connects practitioners and policymakers across countries, facilitating peer-to-peer learning and sharing of knowledge and experience. As part of the Bank’s program, the network is currently developing a Tobacco Tax and Illicit Trade on Tobacco Module targeting member countries in Asia, Africa, Latin American and the Caribbean, and Europe, as well as a diverse group of international, regional, and local partners. The module is expected to focus on tobacco taxation, tax administration, and illicit trade control measures.

In 1991 the World Bank adopted a mandatory operational policy not to lend, invest in, or guarantee investments or loans for tobacco production, processing, or marketing. The Bank’s activities in the health sector discourage the use of tobacco products.

Why the emphasis on tobacco taxation?

Raising taxes on tobacco products is one of the most cost-effective measures to reduce consumption of products that increase mortality , while also generating substantial domestic revenue for health and other essential programs—investments that benefit the entire population. Given this, the World Bank Group Tobacco Control Program gives priority attention to tobacco taxation.

Findings in the 2015 WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic show that while only 33 countries impose taxes that constitute more than 75% of the retail price of a pack of cigarettes—the taxation level recommended to have an impact on consumption —most countries that do tax tobacco products have extremely low tax rates. And some countries do not have a special tax on tobacco products at all.

Given this situation, the World Bank Group’s program supports governments to look at accumulated country evidence and use tax measures to increase the retail price of tobacco products as one of the best available public health policy measures.

Some important lessons from international experience about how to effectively implement tobacco taxation policy to achieve public health objectives can be adopted and adapted in policy dialogue and operational support to countries. Such lessons include:

  • While nearly all countries tax tobacco products, an excise tax is the most important type of tobacco tax, since it applies uniquely to tobacco products and raises prices relative to prices for other goods and services.
  • Simpler tobacco tax structures are more effective than complex ones, since tiered tax structures are difficult to administer and can undermine the health and revenue impacts of tobacco excise taxes.
  • Use of specific excise taxes enhances the impact of tobacco taxation on public health by reducing price gaps between premium and lower-priced alternatives, which limits opportunities for users to switch to less-expensive brands in response to tax increases. Taxing all tobacco products comparably reduces incentives for substitution.
  • Ad valorem taxes are difficult to implement and weaken tax policy impact. Since they are levied as a percentage of price, companies have greater opportunities to avoid higher taxes and preserve or grow the size of their market by manufacturing and selling lower-priced brands. This also makes government tax revenues more dependent on industry pricing strategies and increases the uncertainty of the tobacco tax revenue stream.
  • Specific excise taxes need to be adjusted for inflation to remain effective.
  • Tax increases should reduce the affordability of tobacco products. In many countries, where incomes and purchasing power are growing rapidly, large price increases are required to offset growth in real incomes.
  • Strong tax administration is critical to minimize tax avoidance and tax evasion, to ensure that tobacco tax increases lead to higher tobacco product prices and tax revenues, as well as reductions in tobacco use and its negative health consequences.
  • Regional agreements on tobacco taxation can be effective in reducing cross-border tax and price differentials and in minimizing opportunities for individual tax avoidance and larger scale illicit trade.

For more information, please contact:

Patricio V. Marquez

Lead Public Health Specialist

World Bank Group Health, Population and Nutrition Global Practice

Email address: pmarquez@worldbank.org

Blanca Moreno-Dodson

Lead Economist

World Bank Group Macro Economics and Fiscal Management Global Practice

bmorenododson@worldbank.org

Progress against ‘global tobacco epidemic’ made but not enough

Tobacco treaty has helped cut smoking rates, yet more work is needed

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20170325/health-fitness/Progress-against-global-tobacco-epidemic-made-but-not-enough.643389

The WHO warns against tobacco use which kills about six million people a year globally and imposes a huge burden on the world economy.

A global tobacco treaty put in place in 2005 has helped reduce smoking rates by 2.5 per cent worldwide in 10 years, researchers said, but use of deadly tobacco products could be cut even further with more work on anti-smoking policies.

In a study published in the Lancet Public Health journal, researchers from Canada’s University of Waterloo and the World Health Organisation (WHO) found that while progress against what they called the “global tobacco epidemic” has been substantial, it has still fallen short of the pace called for by the treaty.

The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), which came into effect in 2005, obliges the 180 countries signed up to have high tobacco taxes, smoke-free public spaces, warning labels, comprehensive advertising bans and support for stop-smoking services.

Smoking causes lung cancer and is a major risk factor for cardiovascular illnesses such as heart disease and strokes, which kill more people than any other diseases.

The WHO says tobacco kills about six million people a year globally and imposes a huge burden on the world economy. Annual healthcare and lost productivity costs for those made ill from smoking are estimated at around $1 trillion.

The study analysed WHO data from 126 countries – 116 of which are signatories to the FCTC – and tracked and compared the implementation of the five key measures from 2007 to 2014 to look at links between strong policies and smoking rates.

It found that, on average, smoking rates dropped to 22.2 per cent in 2015 from 24.7 a decade earlier. But the trends varied, with rates falling in 90 countries, rising in 24 and remaining steady in 12.

Countries that fully implemented more FCTC measures saw significantly greater reductions in smoking rates, the study found. Overall, each additional measure was linked with a drop in smoking rates of 1.57 percentage points – corresponding to 7.1 per cent fewer smokers in 2015 compared with in 2005.

The study was not a full global analysis, since only 65 per cent of countries had the data needed, but it did include countries from all income levels and regions. The researchers also noted that the lower smoking rates could be influenced by factors other than FCTC policy recommendations.

“The data did not allow a detailed analysis of the impact of individual policies,” said Geoffrey Fong of Waterloo University, who co-led the work.

He called for more studies that are specifically designed to evaluate the impact of all FCTC policies and would “help provide guidance to countries about what policies may offer the greatest benefits”.

FCTC cut smoking 2.5 per cent over 10 years; study

A decade of tobacco control efforts by the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) has reduced the global smoking rate by 2.5 per cent, according to an evaluation by the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project.

http://www.tobaccojournal.com/FCTC_cut_smoking_2_5_per_cent_over_10_years_study.54157.0.html

Although the international treaty, an adjunct of the World Health Organisation, has made substantial progress in combatting use of tobacco products, implementation of FCTC measures has fallen short of its objectives, according to the study. “While the progress of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control has been remarkable, there are still far too many countries where domestication of the treaty and its implementation has fallen short,” said Dr Geoffrey Fong, a study author from the University of Waterloo, Canada. “One important cause of this is the tobacco industry’s influence, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.”

Conducted with assistance from WHO, the study analysed data from 126 countries and determined the smoking rate in those countries declined on average from 24.7 per cent in 2005 to 22 per cent in 2015. FCTC obligates 180 signatory countries to raise tax on tobacco products, create smoke-free public spaces, implement warning labels on packaging, ban advertising and support stop-smoking services.

Tripling tobacco taxes: Key for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030

Since the World Health Organization (WHO) adopted the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) a decade ago, over 180 countries have signed the treaty. Progress has been made in expanding the coverage of effective interventions–more than half of the world’s countries, with 40% of the world’s population have implemented at least one tobacco control measure, and despite increasing global population, smoking prevalence has decreased slightly worldwide from 23% of adults in 2007 to 21% of adults in 2013. How can greater reductions in smoking be achieved in the next decade and contribute to reaching the health and social targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030? We review some key issues in the epidemiology and economics of global tobacco control.
Smokers face a three-fold higher risk of death versus otherwise similar non-smokers, resulting in a loss of at least one decade of life. While the hazards of smoking accumulate slowly, cessation is effective quickly. People who quit by age 40 get back nearly the full decade of life lost from continued smoking; quit by 50, get back six years; quit by 60, get back four years. Cessation is now common among adults in high-income countries. For example in Canada there are over 1 million more ex-smokers than just a decade ago. However, due in large part to the marketing and pricing strategies of the tobacco industry, cessation remains a major public health challenge in most low and middle-income countries (LMIC) where 85% of smokers live.

http://blogs.worldbank.org/health/role-excise-tax-meeting-sdg

Global annual cigarette sales rose from five trillion cigarettes in 1990 to about six trillion today. Cigarette production has increased by 30% in China since 2000, which consumes 40% of the world’s cigarettes. Global tobacco industry profits of about $50 billion – or $10,000 per tobacco death – enable it to access finance officials, fund pricing research, and run interference against tobacco control–summarised wonderfully by comedian John Oliver. Serious control of tobacco must counter these strategies on the basis of robust health, social and economic data that document the negative societal impact of tobacco use.

WHO has recommended a 30% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2025, which would avoid at least 200 million deaths by the end of the 21st century among current and future smokers. The only plausible way to reduce smoking to this extent would be to triple tobacco excise taxes in most LMICs. A tripling of the excise tax would roughly double the retail price and reduce tobacco consumption by about 40%. As of 2015, WHO reported that only 28 LMICs had comprehensive policies covering counter advertising, restrictions on public smoking, and on appropriately high taxes, and that few had made progress on raising taxes.

The common strategy of tobacco producers is to lobby governments to keep cigarettes affordable by keeping tax hikes below the rate of income growth, and by taxing different cigarettes at different rates to enable smokers to change to cheaper brands or lengths. Smart taxation needs to simplify taxes by adopting, ideally, a high, uniform excise tax on all types of cigarettes (both filter and nonfilter) to reduce downward substitution (let’s not forget, all cigarettes will kill you!). The Government of India has recently made modest tax reforms in this direction, the 2015 tobacco tax adjustment in China is reducing consumption and increasing fiscal revenue, and in 2016 World Bank teams supported the work of government teams in Armenia, Colombia, Moldova and Ukraine for the undertaking of comprehensive tax reforms that were approved by Parliaments, including reforms on tobacco tax structures and rate levels—additional work is being supported in other countries worldwide. Smart taxes can follow the example of Canada’s tax hike of about 5 cents a pack in 2014, as well as the Sin Tax Reform (both tobacco and alcohol) in the Philippines of 2012 that helped mobilize domestic resources to fund the expansion of universal health coverage. There have been other successes: Botswana, Ecuador, Mauritius, Mexico, and Uruguay, where local political champions, paired with expert taxation advice, achieved large tax hikes. South Africa also raised taxes in the last decade and has curbed consumption per adult by half.

Non-price interventions also play an important role as they help to reduce the social acceptability of tobacco use. Young American women took up smoking in large proportions in the 1960s and 1970s due in part to aggressive advertising (“The “Virginia Slims” epidemic”). Advertising bans or restrictions are likely one reason why young Chinese or Indian women have not yet done so. Australia has adopted plain packaging, and other countries are starting to follow this example. Simple questions on past smoking status to death certificates or to verbal autopsies could enable low-cost monitoring of the consequences of tobacco use in many populations.

Governments and international agencies with accumulated know how and expertise in data sciences such as the World Bank Group and OECD along with WHO could also help countries create accessible and independent sales, revenue and smuggling data sources as a basis for rational tobacco tax policy. Country finance officials should refuse advice from tobacco lobbyists to avoid falling into conflict of interest situations, as WHO recommends for health officials.

Implementing the FCTC more effectively in the next decade is required to raise cessation rates in LMICs. The World Bank recommended taxation as the core strategy in its 1999 publication, Curbing the Epidemic: Goverments and the Economics of Tobacco Control. Similar recommendations follow in recent reports on tobacco taxation by WHO, and by the International Monetary Fund. Building upon accumulated evidence and country experiences, a tripling of the worldwide excise tax might be the only way to achieve the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goal of reducing non-communicable disease deaths by 30%!

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